If you’ve been watching the headlines lately, you’ve probably noticed a lot of talk about unemployment, job ads, and what the Reserve Bank is thinking. And you might be wondering — how does any of this affect me and my financial plan?
Let’s unpack it (in plain English).
Jobs Are Holding Up – But They’re Not Booming
Here’s the short version:
- Job vacancies are still high, especially in healthcare, education, and construction.
- The unemployment rate is 4.3%, which is still low by historical standards (it was over 5% before COVID).
- Public sector jobs (think healthcare, aged care, education) have done most of the heavy lifting, while private sector job growth has been slower.
So while the jobs market isn’t as hot as it was a year ago, it hasn’t fallen off a cliff either.
Wages Are Cooling Off
Remember when we were hearing about “wage rises” everywhere? That’s slowing down.
Wages growth hit a peak of 4.3% in late 2023, but now it’s down to 3.4% and likely heading below 3% by early 2026.
Why does that matter? Well, wages growth often feeds into inflation — so slower wages growth means inflation should keep easing, which is good for everyone’s cost of living.
So… What’s the RBA Up To?
The Reserve Bank still reckons the job market is “tight,” which is one of the reasons they’ve been cautious about cutting rates. But here’s the thing: a lot of economists now think the jobs market isn’t as strong as it looks, and that could give the RBA room to start trimming rates in 2025.
Financial markets are already expecting three rate cuts by mid-2026 — and some think there could be more.
For anyone with a financial plan in place, that has two sides:
- Term deposits and cash accounts may pay less over time.
- But lower rates tend to be good for investment markets like shares and property (which can lift portfolio values).
Australia Isn’t Alone in This
What’s happening here is pretty similar to what we’re seeing in the US, UK, and Europe: unemployment is up just a little, wages are cooling, and central banks overseas have already started cutting rates — without inflation shooting back up.
That’s encouraging for Australia, which has been slower to move.
What Does This All Mean for Your Plan?
If you’ve got a retirement strategy or wealth creation plan in place, the main takeaway is this:
- Inflation is easing (a win for living costs).
- Rate cuts are likely coming over the next 12–18 months (good for growth assets, less so for cash returns).
- The jobs market isn’t falling apart, which helps support the broader economy.
It’s not all smooth sailing — but it’s also far from doom and gloom.
So, What Should You Do?
Honestly? Probably nothing drastic. These shifts are exactly why you have a financial plan: it’s designed to weather changing economic conditions.
But if you’ve been wondering whether your cash is still working hard enough, or if your investments are set up for a lower-interest-rate world, it might be worth checking in.
As always, if you’d like to review your plan or just want to talk through how these changes might impact you — reach out. That’s what we’re here for.
The Whitehead Financial Team
