Negativity is a favourite amongst the media and no doubt you will hear much of it throughout the year. Rising interest rates in the US, China’s share market volatility, slow economic growth in Australia, low commodity prices and I’m sure Greece will come to the fore at some point.
The share market will in turn react as confidence wanes. After all confidence is what shapes business, investment and our overall economy. Without confidence, job’s won’t be created and risk’s won’t be taken with investment.
The US’s Dow Jones Index has had a poor start to the year. Throughout 2015 talks of a rate hike created a great deal of uncertainty and volatility more than anything else. The event it’s self was calmly received. Strange as it may sound interest rates rising in the US is good news. Companies in the US are expanding, creating jobs, making profits. There is little to fear from a strong economy and slightly higher interest rates.
Should we be alarmed by the slowing economic growth in China? The short answer is No. China is by far our largest export market and is also important to our other major export destinations (such as Japan and South Korea) so what unfolds in China’s economy has a direct and indirect bearing on us. So far this year markets have fallen heavily in response to poor manufacturing data in China and the suspension of Chinese stock trading after the market benchmark fell 7{10bfeb03cbcd24bab124574a493effe08c110fd5fd5a7327ea9624f0b768d9e7} in a day.
While China’s economic growth rate remains the envy of the world, this short term data reminds us that the adjustment China intends for its economy to one with a greater consumer and services orientation won’t always be smooth. Sectors that will benefit from China coming to an economy with greater consumer and services orientation include health services, food manufacturing, leisure and travel.
In our own economy we have been dealing with the end of the mining investment boom and feeling the effect of the headwinds our big banks are facing due to increasing capital requirements. However, there is plenty of evidence that confidence is rebuilding. Record low interest rates and a weakening dollar has provided enough stimulus to turnaround a number of sectors including manufacturing, tourism, education and agribusiness.
It goes without saying that we face risks ahead. But we must take confidence that the US economy is preforming well, the Chinese economy is modernising and our economy continues to grow and create jobs.
Thank you for your continued support as a valued client. Should you wish to review your financial plans please contact our office on 1300 734 547 or directly on my mobile 0422 743 746. Please be aware that we also provide advice on a full range of Financial Planning services and would be happy to assist you in any way possible.
